START Treaty Will Do Nothing to Prevent the Inevitable Blast
"Obama's idea
of a world without nuclear weapons is beautiful and just, but unrealistic. … The world should prepare for a more
likely scenario: someone, somewhere, unwittingly or on purpose, will use a
nuclear weapon … The planet will need an effective rescue system - both
literally and politically."
It's pity that Barack Obama didn't become president of the
United States several decades ago, because today his idea of
a world free of nuclear weapons is unrealistic. Worse still, it's likely
that nuclear weapons will one day be used again.
The best time to have stopped the nuclear arms race would
have been the years just after World War II, following the horror that was the nuclear
bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Since the 1970s, there has been no hope for
a world without The Bomb. Today it's a dream. A beautiful dream,
but still just a dream.
In the 1950s, the French secretly helped Israel launch its
nuclear program. By the 1970s, India and Pakistan had begun working on their
own Bombs. For a long time, no one on earth, barring narrow group of officials
and military leaders knew about it. The U.K., U.S., and Soviet intelligence
agencies were completely taken by surprise by the first nuclear tests of
Islamabad and Delhi.
A.Q.
Khan (photo, right), head of the Pakistan's nuclear program, for years sold
complete kits for building The Bomb to anyone who asked. Khan's knowledge,
technology and specialists were purchased by, among others, the Iranians and
North Koreans. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian nuclear scientists began
to disperse across the world - from Iran and North Korea to South Africa. For
several years during the post-Soviet chaos, hardly anyone watched them or checked
into what they were up to - or for whom they were working.
Ever since the West along with Russia began reining in that
chaos, several countries - including South Africa and Brazil - have given up
their nuclear ambitions. During that time, however, North Korea, India and
Pakistan had already built The Bomb, while Israel modernized its nuclear
arsenal and developed, for instance, the technology for launching nuclear
missiles from submarines. Several other countries, including in the Persian
Gulf and North Africa, began thinking about building The Bomb.
Today, nuclear technology is expensive, but fairly widely
available. Several countries freely trade in it - mostly for money, but also
for ideological reasons. Many countries are convinced that having The Bomb will
provide security against foreign aggression. Whether or not these calculations
are valid is a separate question (in the case of North Korea, it is merely
a symptom of the regime's crazed paranoia).
Obama's idea of a world without nuclear weapons is beautiful
and just, but unrealistic. Obama himself admits this - it is to be rather a
goal for which the world should aspire but is unlikely to achieve. The nuclear
club will continue to expand. For instance, to stop North Korea from developing
a nuclear arsenal, it would be necessary to topple the Korean regime. There's
no sense in debating the advantages and disadvantages of a military
solution, since the scenario is completely unrealistic today.
I hope Obama
manages to accomplish a lot for the cause of nuclear disarmament.
Realistically, however, the world should prepare for a more likely scenario:
someone, somewhere, unwittingly or on purpose, will use a nuclear weapon, or at
least a co called “dirty bomb” - a conventional explosive with
nuclear material attached.
The world will need an effective rescue system - both
literally and politically, since each country attacked by weapons of mass
destruction tends to see maximum destructive retaliation as a natural and almost
automatic response. The international community should be prepared for this eventuality
and be ready to implement such a system to prevent an escalation that could
endanger the entire planet.
