[Guardian Unlimited, U.K.]

Frankfurter Rundschau, Germany

Bush's Message Fails to Take Hold …

"As in the rest of the Arab world, Bush no longer has any credibility. … Riyadh is ready to recognize Iran as an equal and equivalent mid-sized power in the region. Which is exactly what the United States and Israel want to prevent, but without knowing how."

By Michael Lüders

Translated By Ulf Behncke

January 18, 2008

Germany - Frankfurter Rundschau - Original Article (German)

On Sunday, the Arab news station Al-Jazeera broadcast live U.S. President George W. Bush’s keynote address on his trip through the Gulf States. In Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates, he warned against the “world’s leading sponsor of terrorism,” Iran. At the same time, he spoke of the “message of freedom” for which his country stands.

The handpicked audience, including the entire leadership of the United Arab Emirates, offered their polite applause - but afterwards the speech was no doubt neatly filed away - and not only because President Bush is regarded in the Gulf States as a discontinued model and a "lame duck." As in the rest of the Arab world, he no longer has any credibility. The difficulties in Afghanistan, the disaster in Iraq, a peace process between Israelis and Palestinians that doesn't deserve the name: the leadership of the Gulf States and their general publics hold the policies of the Bush Government responsible.

Against this backdrop, the “message of the freedom” isn't catching on. Although Iran’s radicalism-prone Shiite leadership is anything but popular with the Sunni-ruled Gulf States, even Washington’s obsession with Teheran isn't shared by them. For Saudi Arabia - Iran's great rival for leadership of the Islamic world - it is crucial to focus not on continued confrontation with Tehran, but on coexistence. In other words: Riyadh is ready to recognize Iran as an equal and equivalent mid-sized power in the region. Which is exactly what the United States and Israel want to prevent, but without knowing how.

The Gulf States are Iran’s immediate neighbors. They fear nothing more than another war that would further destabilize the region. Added to that are the close economic ties between Iran and the Gulf States. More than half of Iran's foreign trade beyond oil and gas is flows through the ports of the Emirates. Hundreds of thousands of Iranians live in Dubai and Abu Dhabi alone. This close economic interdependence is another reason Teheran has increasingly ignored Washington’s saber rattling.

The Gulf States are very conservative. They attach great importance to good relations with the United States, upon which they depend for their defense. They would never aspire to break with Washington. Instead, they - and especially Saudi Arabia - are altering their foreign policies away from unilateral dependence on Washington. The Russian government is currently experiencing a charm offensive from the Gulf countries; while China and India are also being courted. The goal is to balance the hegemonic influence of the United States without openly criticizing this major ally about exercising more restraint.

A true master in the art of this political balancing is the ruler of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad Bin Chalifa Al-Thani. On one side, he has given over almost the entire western half of his country to U.S. forces. From there, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are coordinated. On the other hand, in 1996 he launched the Al-Jazeera news channel, which can hardly be regarded as U.S.-friendly.

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