"From
the Peloponnesian Wars to the rise of Athens and the fall of the British
Empire, there is no single model for understanding the collapse of a great
power, let alone the United States as the world's sole superpower. The growing
power of other global actors doesn’t necessarily mean that a weakened U.S. hedgemon
will hand over its fruits."
In recent years, in academia
as well as the public sphere, and particularly since the terrorist attacks of
September 11, 2001, a debate about the long-anticipated decline of U.S.
power in the world has been afoot. This is no idle discussion. It is a debate that in fact,
as Fred Halliday notes,
refers to what path to take to achieve modernity in a capitalist and democratic
Western world, in which Washington is intent on remaining in the forefront. Halliday
said at the time that the terrorist attacks represented a “global event,” which
in turn precipitated a “global crisis,” that could take “a hundred years to emerge
from.”
At any rate, the most transcendental thing about this moment in history is
that it is a product of that very modernity - and that it is more a result of, rather than a cause for, the transition from the presidency of George W. Bush to that of Barack Obama.
Therefore, in the ambit of politics,
the military and economics, the U.S. has been living through an interminable
series of crisis since 2001. Bush’s schizoid invasion of Iraq in March 2003, according
to many observers, radicalized and accelerated the U.S. politico-military decline
and catapulted the United States into disrepute on a global scale. This was no
less true when the United States unleashed the events of “Black September” in
2008, which detonated like a time bomb in the hands of the new president and shook
the considerable foundations of U.S. capitalism, which in turn shattered global
economic stability.
To be sure, for U.S. allies
like the European Union and Japan and even an emerging power like China, this
instability has exposed their once stable economies to instability and long-term
imbalance - just as it did to the United States. For some economists, like Paul
Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, the U.S. faces an economic depression (its third) that
is a consequence of deflationary pressure (a drop in growth). In such a case, “rational
analysis” of U.S. economic and political actors seems to show a tremendous
impact. For example, Krugman argues that not even implementing steps toward
fiscal restraint will suffice to get the U.S. out of its hole. Furthermore,
the measures Obama has proposed to resuscitate the economy have been hijacked
by the political struggle that has begun with the Republican primaries, which
will certainly have a negative impact on the U.S. economy until this November.
Former President Clinton recently
pointed out that, “People have been betting against our country for 200 years
and they all wound up losing money.” That may be true. But given the magnitude
of the crisis that surrounds the United States today, some analysts are betting
that this decline is already a fact, while others question whether it is
happening or will ever happen. With the rise and economic growth of China,
Brazil, India, and Turkey, among others, it is common to suggest that the
United States should cede elements of its hegemony that it never has before.
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by WORLDMEETS.US
Nevertheless, as Joseph Nye
suggests, despite any decline in U.S. power, it is worth understanding that a
decline is always relative to other power holders, and in absolute terms, is based
on internal change. To put it simply, Nye suggests that from the Peloponnesian
Wars to the rise of Athens and the fall of the British Empire, there is no
single model for understanding the collapse of a great power, let alone the
United States as the world's sole superpower. The growing power of other global
actors doesn’t necessarily mean that a weakened U.S. hedgemon will hand over
its fruits. Consequently, the likely hood is that throughout what is left of
the 21st century, we will continue to debate whether or not we have entered a
post-United States world order.
* José Luis Valdés Ugalde is the former
director (for the period 2001-2009) and tenured lecturer-researcher of the
Center for Research on North America at the National Autonomous University of
Mexico.
