U.S. Disaster Expert Warned Japan Before
March 11 Quake
"On March 9th, two days before the earthquake struck, one American issued a stark warning to Japan. The man was Leo Bosner, a former emergency management specialist at the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency. … He said he hoped his lecture would be of some help if such an event were to occur."
Falling on deaf ears: Just two days before Japan's devestating quake and tsunami, Leo Bosner, a senior FEMA official during Hurricane Katrina, tried to warn his Japanese counterparts about the consequences of shirking on emergency planning. His words seem to have had little effect.
On March 9th, two days before the earthquake struck,
one American issued a stark warning to Japan.
The man was Leo Bosner, a former emergency management specialist
at the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency. In a lecture held in Yokohama city,
Bosner set out the three factors necessary for emergency management: "sufficient
staffing," an "adequate budget," and "strong leadership."
He finished by saying that from time to time, both America and Japan experience
catastrophic disasters, and he hoped his lecture would be of some help if such
an event were to occur.
Bosner’s advice is a product of bitter experience from
his time at FEMA.
In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina wreaked havoc along America's
Gulf coast. Despite warnings from specialists, including Bosner, the initial
response from federal agencies like FEMA was delayed, resulting in more than 1,000
deaths. Reporting from America at the time, I was astounded at the beating FEMA
took in the press, since in Japan, FEMA had been held up as an exemplary
emergency management organization. Yet, after hearing Bosner’s story, I can see
how FEMA’s failure was inevitable.
After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001,
President Bush prioritized anti-terrorism over responses to natural disaster, and
distributed his budget and personnel accordingly. As a consequence, FEMA was
downgraded and became part of the newly-formed Department of Homeland Security.
Michael D. Brown, a lawyer by training, was appointed to administer FEMA by
virtue of his friendship with a Bush ally. Other executive posts were filled by
“amateurs” who had supported Bush’s presidential campaign; one was a TV
reporter, another a vote canvasser. Experts on natural disaster were sidelined.
Staff training was reduced, and replacements weren't
made when flood and hurricane specialists left in a backlash against transfers
that failed to take expertise into account. Just as managers had become
conspicuous by their absence, Hurricane Katrina hit.
Mr. Bosner also said this:
"Separating contingency planning for responses to
terrorism and natural disaster was a big mistake. An all-hazards approach that addresses
all types of disaster is what we need. Indeed, I cannot imagine that a plan which
is so fragmented that even FEMA workers can't understand it would be useful in
a crisis." [Translated quote].
So how has the emergency response by Prime Minister
Kan' cabinet fared in comparison? While it may be too early to judge with the
nuclear threat still in progress, it is a question worth examining now.
To start with, Japan doesn’t have an equivalent of
FEMA. In the 2009 lower house elections, the Democratic Party pledged to create
a Japanese counterpart, but now that they're in power, there has been no sign
of a proper discussion on the subject.
Instead, the government has created a succession of
interdepartmental organizations including the Emergency Disaster
Countermeasures Office and the Office of Nuclear Disaster Countermeasures. Unfortunately,
the reception has been extremely negative. Civil servants comment that “it’s
exhausting having to apply “countermeasures” to the Countermeasures Office, and
sometimes I’m not sure what meeting I’m in.” It's chilling to think that this
is the genuine thinking of the civil servants responsible for the
practicalities of addressing nuclear accidents as well as aid efforts to
devastated regions.
When it comes to “personnel,” “money,” and
“leadership,” Bosner believes leadership is the most important. On his first
day on the job, FEMA Director James Lee Witt, who implemented the reform of the
agency in the 1990s, made a point of greeting employees at the entrance of FEMA
headquarters. By holding meetings over a period of six months to discuss what junior
officials felt could be improved in the organization, he developed relationships
of trust. In sharp contrast, the Japanese prime minister loudly berates
subordinates regardless of time or place, which has alienated a good many talented
and motivated civil servants.
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
Law professor Shunsuke Mutai of Kanagawa University
invited Bosner as a guest speaker. Professor Mutai, a former disaster
prevention manager at the Fire Defense Agency, commented “I keep thinking about
what would have happened if the earthquake had hit around the time of the
change in leadership.” [After Japan's elections].
Bosner says he was also scheduled to give a talk at
the cabinet office on March 11th, the day of the earthquake, but for personal
reasons had to cancel at the last minute. Perhaps if it had gone ahead, Prime
Minister Kan would have taken heed of Bosner’s suggestions. It’s a shame.
