Kim Jong-un
on New Year's Day: Are fresh U.S. sanctions over
Pyongyang's alleged hacking of
Sony designed to cool warming
North-South ties?
New U.S. Sanctions
on Pyongyang May Have Little to Do with Sony Hack (The Hankyoreh, South Korea)
"The
problem is that the new sanctions may be motivated by American discomfort with
sudden signs of movement in inter-Korean relations. … The sanctions suggest
that the U.S. is not happy to see Pyongyang hold independent talks with neighboring
countries, since that could blur the focus on the North's nuclear weapons and
missile programs."
Following U.S. President Obama's Jan. 2 executive order imposing
new sanctions on Pyongyang in connection with the Sony Pictures hacking, some analysts
believe that the "American factor" could cast a pall on positive changes
to inter-Korean relations. The U.S. move could be interpreted as a U.S. demand for
the Seoul government to slow down efforts to improve relations with Pyongyang.
The effect these new sanctions will have on inter-Korean
relations can be examined from three angles: how strong North Korea’s response
will be, what the U.S. really hopes to achieve, and how the South Korean
government will deal with the situation.
First, North Korea’s response to the sanctions hasn't been
as intense as in the past.
During an interview with a reporter from the state-run Korea Central News Agency on Jan. 4, a North
Korea Foreign Ministry spokesman would only repeat Pyongyang’s standard determination
to preserve the dignity of the North Korean people and its even firmer resolve
to maintain its independence.
"[The sanctions] make it clear that the United States continues
to be unable to escape its inveterate antipathy and hostility toward North
Korea," the spokesman said during the interview.
On Jan. 3, the ChosonSinbo, the official publication of Chongryun
(a pro-North Korea association of ethnic Koreans in Japan) dismissed the
sanctions as "ineffective," pointing out that the individuals and
organizations included on the sanctions list aren't engaged in transactions
with the United States.
This is a very mild response, especially considering remarks
made by the Pyongyang authorities just weeks ago. When
President Obama promised a "proportional response" to the Sony
Pictures hack, the North Korean Defense Ministry Political Bureau issued a
statement that threatened an "an all out retaliatory war" directed
at the White House, the Pentagon, and the whole of the continental United
States, which it called "cesspools of terrorism."
The problem is that the new sanctions may be motivated by American
discomfort with sudden signs of movement in inter-Korean relations. On Dec. 29,
the South Korean government abruptly proposed talks with Pyongyang, and on Jan.
1, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un mentioned the
possibility of a summit with President Park Geun-hye.
To be sure, the United States doesn't want rising military
tensions between North and South Korea. However, the sanctions suggest that the
U.S. is not happy to see Pyongyang hold independent talks with neighboring
countries, since that could blur the focus on the North's nuclear weapons and
missile programs, which are key U.S. interests. The United States is concerned
that such talks could undermine efforts to maintain a unified front with its
sanctions-centered policy.
For these reasons, the U.S. government offered only tepid
support for recent negotiations between Pyongyang and Tokyo over Japanese
abductees and the visit of Vice Marshal Hwang Pyong-so
and two other senior North Korean officials to South Korea last October.
On Dec. 29, when the South Korean government suggested talks
with North Korea, the U.S. response was apathetic. American officials told South
Korean reporters to direct their questions to Seoul, since it was taking the
lead on the issue.
Furthermore, while Kim Jong-un during
his New Year’s address expressed a forward-looking attitude on inter-Korean
relations, he said nothing of the issue of denuclearization - an issue of key
interest to the U.S. This indicates that in 2015, North Korea will continue its
two-track policy of pursuing economic development and building its nuclear
arsenal.
Posted By Worldmeets.US
U.S. concerns like these are also reflected on the sanctions
list with the inclusion of the state-run Mining Development Trading Corporation,
which is in charge of importing and exporting weapons - a company unlikely to
have been connected with the hack.
With the U.S. asking Seoul to slow down an uptick in inter-Korean
relations, the big question is how Seoul will decide to respond.
In the past, the general view is that that President Park has
reluctantly followed America's lead on the issue of North Korea, nuclear
weapons, unable to overcome the hard-line stance of the United States on the
issue.
"It is unclear whether the South Korean government is
willing to risk conflict with the U.S. to bring about an improvement in its
relations with North Korea. Signs of change in inter-Korean relations may never
get beyond rhetoric," said Kim Chang-soo,
director of research at the Korea National Strategy Institute.
