Ebola's Threat to the Economy and Society (Diario Economico, Portugal)
"In a
disaster scenario, Ebola can cause millions of deaths, but, before that happens,
it would cause such a panic that it would devastate the minimal trust which
forms the foundation on which the economy and society run. … When we see a
performance like that of the Spanish authorities, we learn that at the level of
political and health incompetence, anything is possible."
There are three causes for the rapid disintegration of a
politically-organized society. The first is civil war. While a foreign war might
even strengthen the unity of a people, a civil war destroys it from within. The
second cause of rapid disintegration is natural disaster. When these are of great
magnitude and the political response is lax, the consequences for the social
order are devastating. The third cause to be considered is severe deadly
epidemics, such as Ebola. In this case, some societies with environments
conducive to its spread are already partially disrupted.
Note that the most sophisticated societies in Asia, Europe
and America have recently experienced major scares or threats that never
reached the level of catastrophe: Avian flu, Swine flu, H1N1 … As
in the story of the boy and the wolf, these false alarms contributed to certain
indifference in public opinion - even with the public authorities regarded them
as pandemics. The Ebola crisis, having just arrived in Europe, must now awaken
us from this lethargy.
Now comes the incredible
incompetence of Spanish health authorities in dealing with the problem at home
(which turns out be ours as well thanks to proximity). Spain repatriated two
patients with Ebola who died shortly after arriving. Knowing that there was
nothing to offer them on Spanish soil - unlike the patients repatriated to the
United States who had access to experimental therapy, Spain's decision to
repatriate is immediately questionable.
Once the repatriation had occurred, the patients were admitted
to a Madrid hospital, and we now know that the staff who dealt with them lacked
proper protective equipment. Contaminated material was transported through
public areas of the hospital. The nurse’s aide who was contaminated - the first
on European soil - was on vacation the day after the second patient's death,
even though it is known that the incubation period is 20 days. She informed the
hospital that she had a fever, but had
to wait six days and go through normal emergency room procedures before accessing
an urgent care center to do tests.
In a disaster scenario, Ebola can cause millions of deaths,
but before that happens, it would cause such a panic that it would devastate
the minimal trust which forms the foundation on which the economy and society run.
Of course this scenario is extreme, but it isn't impossible based on existing
mathematical models.
When we see a performance like that of the Spanish
authorities, we learn that at the level of political and health incompetence,
anything is possible. Hopefully this situation will be quickly remedied, and
above all, that Portuguese authorities are better prepared and more discerning.
