[The Telegraph, U.K.]

 

 

Vremya, Russia

Good Riddance to the 'Zeroes': When the Nineties Turned Ugly

 

"'The zeros' were a time of lost illusions. The euphoria that shrouded the developed portion of humanity at the end of the nineties quickly dissipated. The world in the 21st century is no more secure or stable than in the previous century - with its wars, acts of genocide and nuclear confrontation. In fact, now things are even less predictable."

 

By Fyodor Lukyanov*

                                     

 

Translated By Yekaterina Blinova

 

December 18, 2010

 

Russia - Vremya- Original Article (Russian)

The “zero” years are ending almost as they began. The great powers, who thought they somehow ruled something, encountered unforeseen players capable of shuffling all the cards. At the dawn of the decade, the transnational terrorist network loudly declared itself, striking at the heart of the contemporary West in the fall of 2001. And in 2010, it was a computer genius who came out of nowhere to rearrange the global deck.

 

In both cases, the damage these mysterious forces inflicted was smaller than that from the reaction by states. The “crusade against terrorism” declared by the United States after September 11 jumbled international politics, shook the global system, and delegitimized the pretensions to planetary leadership of the sole superpower. Later, the campaign that followed WikiLeaks' disclosures exacerbated inter-state frustration, transformed diplomacy into an object of tabloid journalism and now threatens to undermine America’s authority more than the leaks themselves.

 

“The zeros” were a time of lost illusions. The euphoria that shrouded the developed portion of humanity at the end of the nineties and the Cold War quickly dissipated. The world in the 21st century is no more secure or stable than in the previous century - with its wars, acts of genocide and nuclear confrontation. In fact, now things are even less predictable. The rules are being erased, institutions are eroding and substantive policy is being replaced by political technologists. The atmosphere around the world is like a gigantic magnifying glass through which everything appears larger, and where accepted laws of interaction are distorted under the influence of unforeseen circumstances.

 

Intergovernmental relations shed their ideological shells, returning to more traditional principles - the struggle for influence and prestige. The ideological vacuum has been filled by the growth of nationalist and religious feeling, first of all in the third world, but as a reaction, in the “first” world as well. Xenophobia, paradoxically, takes on a liberal appearance - anti-Muslim sentiment in Europe is growing under the banner of protecting tolerance from Islamic "obscurantism," and the free market, which seemed like an axiom in the late 90s, retreated by the end of the “zeros” under pressure from the universal growth of state intervention in the economy and a revival of protectionist instincts. And the ideals of democracy have not only been discredited by their “promotion” by force during the middle of the decade, but have also been put in doubt by the spectacular rise of a very undemocratic China, which, it seems, came out of the global financial crisis the winner.

 

The North Atlantic Alliance undertook a massive expansion, but lost its aim and mission. The European Union reached its zenith, having made a breakthrough in the direction of expansion while simultaneously deepening integration. The result was growing developmental imbalance and the weakening of its global role in proportion to its immersion in its own internal problems. Russia zealously enforced tighter domestic controls to ensure centralized, top-down management, which consists of an ineffective apparatus that fails to carry out its proper role.

 

“The zeros” were a time of victories that soon turned pyrrhic. The easy occupation of Iraq was followed by years of chaos, the results of which are uncertain. Tehran has already been declared the winner, having rid itself of its arch enemy through the force of American arms. The quick toppling of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan turned into a hopeless, multi-year quagmire for America and NATO. It would be difficult to prove the impotence of force more convincingly. The mightiest military power in history is incapable of conquering one of the most backward nations.  

Posted by WORLDMEETS.US

 

Military victories in Chechnya, where Russia defended its integrity, led to the emergence of a territory practically ungovernable for Moscow, and which is having a growing impact on the rest of the country. And Russia's success in defending its compatriots in South Ossetia has led to a long chain of foreign policy difficulties and a gaping hole through which money drains out, all for the sake of a permanent “restoration” of this newly-recognized state. And while the Russian government is ready to fight to keep the Caucasus under its influence, many of Russia's citizens are prepared to go to great lengths to keep “aliens” from becoming fellow countrymen.

 

At the end of the nineties, no one could foresee what is occurring today. It is meaningless to attempt to predict what things will be like in ten years. The world continues its motion from the irrevocable past to the indeterminate future. The "tens" are covered in fog. They are fraught with new conflicts and will be a time of great decision-making that will determine the development of the nation and globe for the first half of the 21st century. And the cost of error is rapidly multiplying.

 

*Fyodor Lukyanov is Chief Editor for Russian in Global Affairs

 

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[Posted by WORLDMEETS.US December 30, 11:19pm]