"The
Americans have opted out of building an anti-missile system. … This may mean a
chillier era in Polish-American relations. …The Kremlin killed several birds with one stone: U.S. soldiers will not
appear 125 miles from Russia’s European border; 'Russia-phobic' Poland has been
humiliated; and Moscow's prestige as an influential player has been boosted."
The Americans have opted out
of building an anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic for three
reasons.
First, they came to recognize
that Iran will not soon be able to threaten Europe with its rockets - let alone
the United States. Secondly, they decided to sacrifice the shield on the altar
of good relations with Russia. Thirdly, they ultimately concluded that land
bases in Eastern Europe are too expensive.
Posted
by WORLDMEETS.US
That step may mean the
beginning of a chillier epoch in Polish-American relations. The promise of
further collaboration on a new system Defense Secretary Gates proposed in a statement
may apply in 2015 at the earliest. In 2015, Barack Obama may no longer be president,
or Robert Gates, Defense Secretary. A new system may come about … or not. Apart
from that: what Polish prime minister would now sign an agreement with the U.S.
government without fearing, a few months later, of being left out in the cold?
Even if Obama proposes
something to soften the blow, the manner in which the Americans reneged on the shield
and the date they chose to announce it [September 17, the date of the 1939
Soviet invasion of Poland] arouses disgust.
The only capital city where
enthusiasm reigned on Thursday [Sept. 17] was Moscow. That's understandable, since
for Russia, the issue of stopping the shield project was a test of its
geopolitical power. The Kremlin killed several birds with one stone: American
soldiers will not appear 200km [125 miles] from Russia’s European border;
“Russia-phobic” Poland has been humiliated; and it boosts Moscow’s prestige as
an influential player on the international stage. Russian leaders seem
encouraged by the softness of Washington. They send an insulting letter to the
president of Ukraine; threaten the Georgian fleet; and have spoken of armed intervention
to protect its citizens abroad.
[Editors Note: In August,
Russian President Medvedev sent a letter to Ukraine President Yushchenko, blaming Ukraine for deteriorating relations. In
recent years there have been gas disputes; Ukraine has sought to join NATO and
expelled what they believed were Russian spies; and Ukrainian interpretations
of the Stalin-era famine in Ukraine irk Moscow. Russia is also upset that
Ukraine supplied weapons to Georgia during Russia's invasion of that country
last year].
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
Oh, yes, Moscow will repay
the Americans: it will impose new sanctions against Iran and agree to bilateral
limits on the number of nuclear warheads (which it cannot maintain anyway).
This is exceptionally little for Russia to pay for such a cornucopia of benefits.
Barack Obama is apparently following
the mirage of a safe world without nuclear weapons, without rogue states and
without terrorism - and with America, Russia, China, the E.U. and the United
Nations safeguarding global peace. He may, however, find it impossible to realize
his utopian calculations.
What if Russia, in exchange
for reducing its nuclear arsenal, also demands that Washington stop promoting the pro-Western ambitions of Ukraine and
Georgia? Or suppose the Kremlin insists on a greater role in shaping the strategy
of NATO? What if turns out, however, that Iran is closer to building a nuclear
weapon than we think? Closer, for example, than it seems to the CIA, which let
us recall was surprised by the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War [1973],
the Iranian Revolution
or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Nor did it predict the collapse of the
Soviet Union; it shamed itself on September 11, 2001 and then found
“unshakeable evidence” of the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
Posted
by WORLDMEETS.US
What if this time again, the
CIA’s outstanding analysts and spies (among whom 72 percent speak exclusively
English) are wrong?
