Kim Jong-il: Will he offer Washington

renewed nuclear talks before Nov. 4?

Novosti, Russia

Will Kim Jong-il Offer McCain an Election Gift?

"The entire history of North Korea's nuclear program is an example of how to operate directly on an audience, for instance, the pre-election United States. … Now everything depends on whether the North Korean authorities want to make a gift to American Republicans on the eve of the voting."

By Dmitry Kosirev

Translated By Yekaterina Blinova

October 3, 2008

Russia - Novosti - Original Article (Russia)

While America waited with bated breath for the outcome of the voting in Congress on a $700 billion bailout of failed financial institutions, and as U.S. voters watched the debate of the two candidates for the vice presidency of the United States, in faraway North Korea, another act in the nuclear-diplomatic drama quietly unfolded. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hills crossed the border between South and North Korea by car headed to the city of Pyongyang, where he spent an unexpectedly long time - three days.

ABC NEWS, AUSTRALIA AUDIO: North Korea test-fired two short-range missiles, Oct. 8, 00:03:14

All that the outside world has managed to glean from the trip is a photograph of Hill standing with American and North Korean diplomats on the hill above the city - and very few details. These were important talks intended to provide a path out of the unexpected deadlock in the process by which North Korea was to abandon its nuclear plans in exchange for the fulfillment of a number of demands.

It's unlikely that the talks were entirely successful. Because on his way home during a brief conversation with reporters in Seoul, Hill said he couldn't discuss the subject before reporting back to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and representatives of the other countries participating in Six-Party Talks on the “Korean nuclear problem.” In addition to the United States and North Korea, those talks include Russia, China, Japan and South Korea.

There's no doubt that if Hill had been able to settle everything with Pyongyang, he would have forgotten all about the six-sided format. And neither would Pyongyang mind doing so, with its long-cherished dream of direct talks with the United States. But the two couldn't agree on anything. They need all four of the other players as guarantors and overseers of the conduct of the two sides, etcetera.

Playing lead fiddle, of course, is China. U.S. State Department official Steve McCormack recently recalled that during the course of Korean negotiations, it was necessary for America to “deposit” various coordinated plans, declarations and the like in Beijing. The burden was then divided among the other participants, and the execution of the various arrangements was organized. This is a very interesting point, reflecting the pecking order in east-Asian politics and the world at large. But it hardly enables us to understand what Hill gleaned on his unexpected trip.

The problem that arose appeared to be purely technical. In 2007, the six-party talks had resolved the nuclear Korean problem, having adopted a fairly detailed plan - a roadmap of who does what, and how the other side should respond. What has happened since has been a series of nervous reactions from one or the other side, over what they perceive to have been ill-intentioned deviations from that roadmap.

This time, Pyongyang accused Washington of not fulfilling its commitment to remove North Korea from the list of terrorist-supporting states. There's a lot to be said about the quality of this list: either you support terrorism or not; and if this can be negotiated, what kind of list is that? But that is a separate issue about the style of U.S. foreign policy. 

The U.S. explains its hesitance by pointing out North Korea's refusal to adhere to the agreed-upon verification of its nuclear sites (which of course, it has rejected). This is the very procedure which has inhibited a similar process with Iran, since it involves unannounced random inspections anywhere in the country. As for the North Koreans, who are accustomed to expecting a war and enemy spies, this is of course unusual.

Regardless of how it happened, it has been these “tiny” details of the supposedly finalized plan that have triggered the current stalemate. And importantly, North Korea once again commands respect. Last week, it expelled IAEA inspectors from its nuclear reactor at Enben, where the seals placed there by inspectors were torn off, and it promised to resume the enrichment of weapons-grade plutonium.

Experts threw up their arms in amazement: after all, didn't they just blow up the reactor's cooling tower [photos right] - how can any work be resumed there? But the entire history of North Korea's nuclear program is an example of how to operate directly on an audience, for instance, the pre-election United States. Never mind what the experts say. More importantly, will it frighten the American voter.

Meanwhile, Pyongyang devised yet another clever idea. South Korean satellites recorded some strange smoke over a firing range near the village of Gilju in Hamgyong Province. It's the same place where, on October 9, 2006 North Korea detonated something that apparently allowed it to call itself a nuclear power. Never mind that the experts have begun to throw up their arms again, questioning the quality of the bomb they detonated. What matters is that Pyongyang has been able to push six-party talks into moving at a more rapid pace.   

Posted by WORLDMEETS.US

Some people who have seen the satellite images say it could be a smokescreen to conceal from satellites preparations for a new nuclear test. Of course, the same effect could be obtained by a bucketful of burning rags that someone wanted to get rid of.

And while North Koreans burned rags and laughed, Washington thought to itself: Is this good news on the eve of the elections - the detonation of a North Korean nuclear bomb right after Condoleezza Rice’s assurances that everything is fine?

We'll find out, of course, what Hill has accomplished in Pyongyang, what plan he brought to his North Korean colleagues, and whether they liked it. Most likely, the plan was a good one. Now everything depends on whether the North Korean authorities want to make a gift to American Republicans on the eve of the voting (in the form of a resumption of the disarmament process), or choose to wait until the new administration enters the White House. Then they can burn their rags on the firing range once again.

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[Posted by WORLDMEETS.US October 9, 2:30am]