"Who
can say whether Obama in the U.S. and Sarkozy in France, potentially outgoing incumbents
who have had to confront the worst economic crises that their nations have ever
known, will retain their posts? Who can say whether Putin will return to his
headquarters in the Kremlin, given that the Russian elections are just a few
months away and the country is experiencing unprecedented political protests?"
Numerous countries in 2012 have
national agendas that include presidential or parliamentary elections. For some
of them and for a number of reasons, this electoral appointment is expected to
be a highlight of the coming year.
This is the case, for example,
for the presidential elections that will occur in the United States, France and
Russia. These are three major powers in the international arena, so what
happens in these nations electorally will necessarily have positive or negative
impact internationally. The interest generated by these three presidential
elections will be even greater than usual, due to the delicate situation that
each is experiencing and which will undoubtedly have an impact on the outcome
of the voting, but it is risky to predict a result.
Indeed, who can say whether
Barack Obama in the U.S. and Nicolas Sarkozy in France, two potentially outgoing
incumbents that have had to confront the worst financial and economic crises
that their nations have ever known, will retain their posts? Who can say whether
Putin will return to his headquarters in the Kremlin, given that the Russian elections
are just a few months away and the country is experiencing unprecedented
political protests? These may be sources of surprise - with unpredictable
consequences on the international stage.
Countries with less
respective weight than the trio mentioned above will also hold elections. And what
emerges there will be no less scrutinized, as they are also experiencing situations
that will have repercussions beyond their respective borders. This is true of
African and Arab states in which the winds are blowing with demands for
democracy and respect for the will of the people. The results of the polling in
these countries will show whether the wind of freedom blowing in the Arab world
and Africa were strong enough to put an end to the anachronism of rigged
elections and automatic reelections guaranteed in advance.
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Algeria is one such country. Parliamentary
elections will be held in the first half of 2012. It is an appointment that will
certainly prove decisive in the wake of political reforms that are said to meet
the conditions for holding democratic and transparent elections. Organized
under such conditions, the election will inevitably lead to a restructuring of
the national political landscape, which was previously determined by an
arbitrary policy of quotas. These are reforms that will hopefully result in a genuine
political plurality as reflected by Algerian society. However, if this
appointment gives rise to the same practices as those that affected previous
elections, then the country should fear the inevitable excesses that accompany
a distorted transition and dashed hopes.
It is the same situation that
applies to all Arab countries, where we already see the "spring" that
hatched in Arab states being suffocated by the return of demons that were
thought to have been cast out.