[The Times, U.K.]

Le Figaro, France

American Report a 'Turning

Point in the War on Terror' …

"The assumption of a Soviet-style CIA coup against George Bush, with the goal of disarming the hawks from now until the end of the President's mandate, is unacceptable."

By Alexandre Adler

Translated By James Jacobson

November 9, 2007

France - Le Figaro - Original Article (French)

The announcement U.S. intelligence that Iran is not - strictly speaking - on the point of manufacturing an atomic bomb , and that it lacks the technical capacity to obtain one until about 2010 or even 2015, is undoubtedly the most important turning point of the war against terror that began around the year 2000. This decision by Iran is as clear as it is obscure, which is doubtless the reason that some in the press and a good portion of international political analysts remain reticent to grapple with its full significance. It is nevertheless completely clear that in agreeing to give this estimate a solemn and public airing, President Bush is now committed until the end of his mandate not to intervene militarily in Iran. This will be a shame for all the pen-pushers whose work predicted a new Iranian-American war, which will now wilt on bookshop shelves.

But there's still more in the message that U.S. intelligence has sent to global opinion - as well as to the Iranian leadership: Between the lines one can also read the outlines of negotiations to come - and even a trace of a negotiation that may already have begun - which if true, would be considerably more sensational. If the reader would allow me a personal confession, I will gladly recount that a good year before the election of Ahmadinejad to the presidency of Iran, I suggested to high-level Iranian negotiators the “Japanese solution,” to which they expressed great interest. I was alluding to the fact that Japan already has on hand all the components for a nuclear weapon, but which it refuses to assemble, considering that it already has a strong deterrent with the parts disassembled.

So I was not surprised to read three weeks later in The Economist that “certain Iranian officials referred to a compromise called the Japanese solution” ... and it is this concept that the pens of CIA analysts refer to, when they refer to a difference between the fabrication of a nuclear explosive - which Iran has not pursued since 2003 - and the manufacture of nuclear fuel, which Iran has pursued imperturbably since the end of a freeze on uranium enrichment at Natanz . No one can ignore the fact that if Iran can produce enriched uranium - but deliberately produce less than is needed to build a Bomb - the essential point is that it is continuing to master uranium production, and at any time it could push the button and effortlessly proceed to obtain The Bomb.

This American distinction between potential and actual is therefore an invitation to Iran to content itself with a “Japanese solution” in which The Bomb, while technically feasible, would never be assembled. But there's more: By commending a freeze in uranium enrichment before the re-election of Ahmadinejad, the United States is here alluding to what could be the politics of a reformist coalition including Rafsanjani  and Khatami , the two predecessors of the current president, who both seek to be leaders again. This document is therefore a very strange item. It's an analysis - and much more: a public invitation to Iran to adopt a particular negotiating position.

The assumption of a Soviet-style CIA coup against George Bush, with the goal of disarming the hawks from now until the end of the President's mandate, is unacceptable. Rather, the coup took place a year ago, when former CIA chief Bob Gates replaced Rumsfeld as the head of the Pentagon, and when the prudence of Condi Rice was reinforced. The report was President Bush speaking through his (sixteen) intelligence services. If we introduce into the matrix two additional equations; the likelihood of a defeat of the Iranian fundamentalists in parliamentary elections scheduled for next spring; and the increasingly real possibility of a relative calming of Sunni terrorism in Iraq, we have an overview of the new American strategy.

Everything deliberately done to relax the atmosphere for the anti-fundamentalists in Iran, which now includes most of the more moderate conservatives, will ensure that the next election will be freer than the previous presidential one. Has Rafsanjani provided secret guarantees to his American counterparts? It's difficult to answer this question.

But it may be recalled that in 1953, America was able to return the Shah to power , but paid the price by ultimately accepting the nationalization of oil that the people elected Mossadegh  to accomplish.  Will "the Japanese solution" be the price agreed to by the two parties, to ensure the effective convergence of two diplomacies that the Baghdad regime [Saddam] had so long prepared for?

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