Defense Secretary Gates and Secretary of State Rice Russia's are greeted

by Russia's outgoing President and Prime Minister-elect Vladimir Putin,

at the Kremlin, March 17.

Kommersant, Russia

Can Russia and the

U.S. Resolve Their

Differences? … Nyet

"The Bush Administration is one of the biggest lame ducks in history. Even if it wanted a historic achievement to crown its term with, it doesn't have the political wherewithal: the world is openly preparing for the change of power in Washington. … The greatest challenge over the coming months will be to avoid open conflict, especially given the unfavorable situation that is now unfolding."

By Fedor Lukyanov*

Translated By Igor Medvedev

March 18, 2008

Kommersant - Russia - Original Article (Russian)

U.S.-Russian "two plus two" negotiations are always remarkable events. That's no surprise, since it's not every day that the ministers [and secretaries] responsible for both political and military strategy for the two nuclear superpowers get together. An awareness of the significance of these events generates high expectations, which then lead to disappointment. So it would be better for us now to identify the limits of the possible.

Can Russia and the United States make a breakthrough and resolve their differences? No they can't, mainly because of the political situations in both countries.

The Bush Administration is one of the biggest lame ducks in history. Even if it wanted a historic achievement to crown its term with, it doesn't have the political wherewithal: the world is openly preparing for the change of power in Washington. The ability of the United States to contribute to the stabilization of global currency and financial markets is very much in doubt.

In Moscow, there has been a de facto change in the system of power, and now the difficult process of configuring new mechanisms must begin. In terms of foreign policy, actions will be cautious, since the delicate balance between continuity and innovation must be kept. Both Russian leaders [Putin and Medvedev] will be looking to keep the other in mind as they confront the many domestic and foreign challenges. This is not conducive to revolutionary steps - and it will raise the suspicions of Russia's partners.

The greatest challenge over the coming months will be to avoid open conflict, especially given the unfavorable situation that is now unfolding. The situation in and around Kosovo , the agenda for the upcoming NATO Summit in Bucharest , the construction of an anti-ballistic missile system in the post-Soviet countries and even in part, the situation in China in light of the tensions in Tibet – all could drastically worsen the atmosphere. As a result, new leaders "are tied" to the legacy of the previous period.

Posted by WORLDMEETS.US

There are many disagreements between Moscow and Washington. But that's not the main problem. In terms of generalities, no one disputes the fact that we live in a globalized world wherein all processes are interrelated, and all countries are mutually dependent. But as soon things get wrapped up in bilateral relations, globalization is forgotten and people behave as if this underlying reality no longer exists and mutual accusation becomes a goal in and of itself.

Meanwhile, the situation that America and Russia confront looks a lot different when viewed through a global prism.

The question before Washington is how to provide leadership in a changing world with new centers of economic and political power. Moreover, the ideological appeal of the United States is weaker than it was before, and the institutions of cooperative global cooperation have been undermined. Moscow has a similar problem - how to consolidate its international position in the same changing world, where the success of a country with a population shortage and a commodity-based economy is in no way guaranteed. 

Posted by WORLDMEETS.US

So far there has been no indication that from this point of view, things will change. A bilateral agenda based on mutual opposition is the path of least resistance. But this has less and less to do with the real development global events.

*Fedor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief, Russia in Global Affairs

SEE ALSO:

Novosti, Russia

'Many Dishes May Brake'

At NATO's Next Summit

http://worldmeets.us/novosti000049.shtml

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[Posted by WORLDMEETS.US March 23,10:18am]