[Stuff, New
Zealand]
Estadao, Brazil
An
Immigrant's Son, Obama Promises 'Significant Progress' in Latin America
"There will be significant
progress in comparison to the lamentable legacy of George W. Bush, who
frustrated the great expectations that he had created in our region at the
beginning of his mandate."
By Luiz Felipe Lampreia*
Translated By Brandi Miller
November 15, 2008
Brazil
- Estadao - Original Article (Portuguese)
Elected by a landslide and
carrying the hopes of America, Barack Obama will soon begin to reveal his
priorities on international relations for the United States. What place will Latin
America have in these priorities? One shouldn’t expect our region to be on the
list of his immediate priorities, but for a number of reasons, I think there'll
be significant progress in comparison to the lamentable legacy of George W.
Bush, who frustrated the great expectations he created in our region
at the beginning of his mandate.
Latin America is today, more
than ever, an important partner for the United States: as a supplier of oil,
and potentially, biofeuls, as a market for exports and investment for large
North American corporations, and as the point of origin for a growing portion
of the American population. Remember that Obama won 57 percent of the Latino
vote in Florida, which represents a structural change in a state traditionally
dominated by Cuban-American voters who have always voted more conservatively.
On the other hand, in Latin America today there are some of the most aggressive
anti-American leaders.
So what on our continent
should be the central focus of attention for the Obama government?
I see no possibility for an
ambitious program like John F. Kennedy's Alliance for Progress 
, or Bill
Clinton's North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA ).
On the contrary, I believe policies will be tailored for each country or each
region of the continent.
Mexico, the big neighbor to
the south, should be first for two principal reasons: because it's the stage of
a terrible struggle between the government and narco-traffickers and because
that country sends close to 500,000 of its citizens every year across the
northern border, and has another 15 million already living there legally or
illegally. The Bush Government had signaled its willingness to pass a grand
agreement on immigration and promised financial aid and material support worth
several billions dollars to the fight against drugs (the Mérida Initiative,
similar to Plan Colombia ), after
President Felipe Calderón altered Mexico's traditional policy of not seeking or
accepting this type of assistance. After the amount was repeatedly reduced,
Mexico eventually received only $400 million, and the assistance came with a
good number of conditions.
[Estadao, Brazil]
As for immigration, Barack
Obama - himself the son of an immigrant - won't fail to pay attention to the
issue, will abandon the repressive polities of Bush, who erected walls and
stepped-up police surveillance along the border. I believe that the Obama
Government will seek a broad agreement with the U.S. Congress and an
operational and cooperative understanding with all countries in the region for
which this issue is of great importance and sensitivity. I think it's possible
to have an agreement based on realism - allowing the immigration of "X
number" of people which would be proportional to the demand for laborers in
the United States - but also engaging the region's countries to control the
emigration of their citizens.
Colombia could also benefit
from more attention, but it's not clear whether Obama will maintain the very
critical line he held to during the electoral campaign, particularly condemning
violations of human rights [Obama criticized attacks on labor union activists].
For several years, President Álvaro Uribe has been an ally of Washington,
possibly the most solid in Latin America. The lynchpin of the alliance is Plan
Colombia - an ambitious attempt to curb the production
and trafficking of cocaine that has cost an estimated $6 billion since 2000.
Today we know that the plan has failed, because it
hasn't reached its central objective of reducing drug production by 50 percent.
But the program involves equally important military cooperation, which has contributed
to reversing the position of inferiority that previous Colombian Governments
have found themselves in confronting the FARC [Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia, which until recently controlled 40 percent of the country ].
For Colombia, meanwhile, the
central objective in recent years has been the adoption of reciprocal trade
preferences [Free Trade Agreement]. Bush failed to get the agreement passed in
Congress. During the election campaign, Barack Obama spoke of reviewing aid to
Colombia and not approving the trade agreement. We'll see how he acts after he
is sworn in. The Colombia test will also be decisive for signaling the
willingness of the new American government in terms of bilateral trade
deals.
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
Cuba will also figure on the
agenda, although very gradually. There may be, however, a window in the short
term. The devastation of the recent hurricanes devastated the food harvests on
the island. Cuba discretely sought a lifting of the U.S. embargo for a short
period, to enable it to buy food and supplies in the United States, but Bush
turned a deaf ear. Will Obama be willing to signal goodwill, suspend the
anachronistic and ineffective blockade, even if only temporarily in the
beginning? Clinton had already contemplated a gradual normalization, but Fidel
Castro had no interest in this, as it would have robbed him of his ultimate weapon:
the external threat that for decades has united the Cuban people under his
leadership. But times have changed and opportunities may arise.
Hugo Chávez, with his
traditional brazenness, has offered himself as a mediator to President Obama.
His principal objective is to mitigate his reputation as the principal opponent
of the United States in the region, including the hope that this will have an
impact on the difficult electoral campaign now underway in Venezuela. I don’t
anticipate any receptivity to this offer. I think most likely there will be a
policy of coolness and observation, at least in the initial period, with regard
to Chávez, Evo Morales (Bolivia), Cristina Kirchner (Argentina) and Rafael
Correa (Equador).
In an upcoming article I will
cover the issue of relations with Brazil.
*Luiz Felipe Lampreia was
Brazilian Foreign Minister from 1995-2001.
[Posted by WORLDMEETS.US November
17, 10:14pm]
