Is it time for the U.S. military to
leave Afghanistan and that nation's security to an international peacekeeping
force? In this surprisingly forthright op-ed credited to the deputy general of
the China Council for National Security Policy Studies, the Beijing leadership
definitively wades into thequestion of what should be done to fix Afghanistan.
General Stanley McChrystal, commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, meets British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London, Oct. 1. General McChrystal's speech in London, during which he personally rejected the idea of a U.S. drawdown, is in contrast to Beijing's view, which is expressed by Li Qinggong in this article.
Afghanistan's political and
social turmoil has been aggravated by the conflicting intentions of the nations
that constitute coalition forces. Up to now, Afghanistan's fragile regime is
finding it difficult to bring order to a restive domestic situation. Still, if
the key players adopt a peaceful and reconciliatory approach to their push to
end the war, it could help bring the country out of the mess.
First - the United States
should put an end to the war. The war on terror, which the George W Bush administration
launched in 2001, has turned out to be a source of endless turbulence and
violence. To promote much-needed reconciliation among the parties, the U.S.
should discontinue its military action. The war has brought the Islamic nation neither
peace and security, as the Bush Administration promised, nor any tangible
benefits to the U.S. itself. On the contrary, the legitimacy of America's
military action has been under ever-increasing doubt.
U.S. public opinion on the
war has seen a dramatic change. According to a recent poll, opinion in favor of
the war has dropped from 53 percent in April to 39 percent today. Furthermore,
the U.S. Congress has cast doubt on the Obama Administration's Afghan strategy.
Opposition from 74 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of independents would be
a major brake on Obama's wider military goals, given that the new president
can't afford to bet his political fate on a unpopular war.
Since taking office, the
Pentagon has been pressuring Obama for reinforcements in Afghanistan. The demands
of anti-war opponents offer the young president his best chance to extricate
himself from the pressure coming from the Pentagon. If Obama affirmatively decides
to stop the war, it would not only meet U.S. public expectation, it would save American
lives, help the United States recover its peaceful image and enhance the
president's own political prospects.
Another way to help break the
current deadlock in Afghanistan would be to promote reconciliation among the
Afghan government, the Taliban and the country's major warlords. In addition to
the U.S.-factor, the chaos in Afghanistan is also due in large part to
long-standing strife between Afghan factions. Afghanistan has experienced many
wars and conflicts during its history, including an invasion by the Soviet
Union in the late 1980s and the U.S. war today. This war-ravaged Asian nation
is undergoing a chaotic battle that involves U.S.-led coalition forces, Afghan
government forces and those of domestic warlords, the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Disorderly
confrontation and strife does no good for anyone, causing only untold suffering
to the Afghan people.
Political disorder is the
main cause of Afghanistan's domestic chaos. The country's presidential election
on August 20 has so far failed to produce a final result. The recount of votes
in more than 600 polling stations alleged to have suffered fraud is expected to
last another two or three months, which will only add to the chaos. The U.S.
has urged Afghan President Hamid Karzai to hold a second round of voting, but
Karzai seems to have adopted the perception that Washington isn't a reliable
partner that can help end the predicament of Afghanistan. Karzai thinks that
talks are the only way out. Provided that the United States ends its military
action, Karzai would likely open tri-party talks with the Taliban and the major
warlords.
Afghanistan needs
worldwide support to move substantially toward peace. The global community should
take advantage of mounting calls against the war within the U.S., to prompt the
Obama Administration to end it and withdraw U.S. troops. Germany, France and
Britain plan an international conference this year to discuss the gradual military
withdrawal from Afghanistan. The U.N. Security Council should grasp the baton
from the three European states to convene a conference on Afghanistan to reach
a consensus among the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, on a
roadmap and timetable for a resolution.
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During this process, one ticklish
issue will be whether the other parties will be able to accept the Taliban as a
key player in Afghanistan and how to dispose of the forces of al-Qaeda. This issue
will be central to the outcome of any conference on the Afghanistan issue.
Surely, in the absence of
American troops, an international peacekeeping mission will be needed. With the
aid of international peacekeepers, the Afghan government and its security
forces could be expected to maintain peace and security and exercise effective
control over domestic unrest.
*Li Qinggong is deputy
secretary-general of the China Council for National Security Policy Studies
