Obama on the hustings in Virginia: The Arab
world favors
him, but is under no illusion that from their point of view,
things will improve overnight.
Al Ahram, Egypt
Arabs are Backing
Obama
"D-Day is approaching, along
with all sorts of speculation as to whether it's one or the other candidate
that would be better for the interests of the Arab world. For a large portion
of the Arab World and Egyptian political class, Obama is much better than
McCain."
We're in the home stretch.
Barack Obama and John McCain are hurtling toward the goal of inhabiting the White
House. American presidential elections have always been the most followed and
the most sensational. Need we recall that America is the country of sensational
twists such as those seen in many Hollywood productions? This is an important
side of all this, after all, particularly with satellite TV channels and at a
time when the world is a global village. But obviously, the most important
thing is this: The United States is the superpower which presents itself as “Empress of the World.” Can one therefore
ignore these elections? Undoubtedly not - particularly in the Middle East. The
region is in turmoil and where America is implicated, and is in fact at the
root of many of its troubles. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran's nuclear program
and a battered economy … American President George W. Bush is leaving his
successor a complicated legacy.
Whether it's Republican John
McCain or Democrat Barack Obama, he will take the reigns of a weakened
superpower confronting serious doubts about its strength, the influence of
which is being questioned around the world, including among its closest allies.
John McCain campaigns in Ohio, Oct. 31. While Arabs prefer
Obama, this is unlikely to faze the Republican candidate.
The moral leadership and
competence of the United States to make good decisions will continue to raise
questions, within America's borders as well as abroad. And in the Arab world,
should we expect changes under the presidency of one or the other candidate?
It is generally admitted
among political analysts as well as the public, that Obama is better than
McCain. To begin with, it's a question of language: McCain speaks violently and
at times with contempt about the Arab World, Palestinians and Iran - but offers
no realistic solution regarding Iraq and Palestine.
His statements in this
respect are more than revealing. As far as Hamas, Senator John McCain, who has
visited Israel frequently, has declared that he opposes discussions with the
movement. While this is unexceptional in America, it is the manner in which his
position is formulated that provokes the anger of Arabs.
“Someone will have to give me
an answer to the question of how we can negotiate with an organization has set
itself the goal of eliminating you (Israel) … If Hamas and the Lebanese
Hezbullah should succeed here, they would win everywhere else; not only in the
Middle East but everywhere … They aspire to destroy everything that the
United-States, Israel and the Western world believe in and defend.”
Furthermore, McCain is a
Republican truly in line with Bush, which as far as the Arab world is concerned
hardly inspires confidence. Bush, who was the first American president to have
appealed for the creation of a Palestinian state, failed to achieve the goal
before the end of his mandate. That was due to Israeli procrastination, which
he was complicit in or at least didn't actively resist. Bush's legacy is also
about the War Against Terrorism that was launched after the September 11
attacks, one of the symbols of which is the ultra-controversial prison at
Guantanamo, the responsibility for which will also fall to the next president.
All this raises apprehension
over a possible McCain victory. Gamal Abdel-Gawad, a researcher at the Center
for Political and Strategic Studies, told Al-Ahram, “the McCain program
is vague. For Iraq he discusses the issue in the context of the danger that a
rapid American withdrawal represents and the negative impact it would have on
both American and Iraqi sides. Here there is a significant difference with
Obama, who has discussed this issue and the Palestinian question more clearly
and considers these issues a priority. In either case, a change will take
place. But the proportion of change will be determined by the victor.”
Egyptians experts tend to
agree that in the event of an Obama victory, the changes would be more tangible.
For political scientist Abdel-Azim Hamad, “Obama’s promises are clearer and go
in three directions. He promises to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq, to call for
a dialog with Iran and most importantly, he has said firmly that a settlement
of the Palestinian issue would be in the American interest and constitute a
guarantee of Israel's security.”
Other experts, including
Americans, believe that in any case, one shouldn't rely on electoral promises.
It is true, the main
objective of a candidate is to win, but it's difficult to stand up and simply
lie for the sake of propaganda, since he will have to account for the content
of the program he presents, Abdel-Gawad notes.
Obviously, there
are many faceted permanent American political interests at stake. “The
interests differ from one country to another. There will certainly be change,
but we can't generalize across all regions and all states, whoever is the
winner,” says Ahmad Sabet, professor of political science at the University of
Cairo. For him, the influence of the election will be very clear as far as Iraq
is concerned - in terms of whether it will bring a total withdrawal or only a
partial one.
Posted by WORLDMEETS.US
“The accent will be on how a
continued massive American presence will only have led to massive losses.”
Another factor that remains tied to the Middle East region, although it is a
more distant territory, is Afghanistan. Lest we forget that the American
invasion of Afghanistan was the first step of a so-called war against terrorism
and which reached its climax during the campaign against Iraq? For Sabet,
“Afghanistan will demonstrate the nature of the change. American forces will
make up part of those in NATO and their role will be reduced to operations of
surveillance and intelligence gathering, without implicating themselves into
military operations.”
2008 ELECTION
FUN: AN EXPERIMENT IN REVERSE PSYCHOLOGY
It
is clear that for the Arabs, the central question remains Palestine. It is a
focal point the resolution of which must pass through Washington - and can
hardly be free of Israeli influence. Moreover, up to now, Israel has been
America's beachhead in the region.
“For each candidate, this
issue is hardly an appealing one. The complexity of the deal has stalled
negotiations, as have internal disputes between Fatah and Hamas and the
appalling economic situation of the Palestinians - to say nothing of the
weakness of the Arab role,” adds Sabet.
Thus, it's unlikely that a
McCain or an Obama will bring anything new on that front. The Middle East is a
real headache and a strategic preoccupation with all kinds of issues at stake.
So is it six-of-one and half-a-dozen of the other? Probably not. For a large
portion of the Egyptian political class, Obama is much better than McCain.
