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By Abid Mustafa

September 7, 2005

Original Article (English)    

In the wake of the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina and Bush’s inept response to the unfolding humanitarian crisis in New Orleans, the myth of America’s superpower status has been shattered.

A country that prides itself on its achievements in space, its high-tech weaponry and its ability to pulverize entire nations has by all accounts put forth a third world response to the pain and suffering of its own people. This is so much the case that America has finally swallowed its pride and asked the E.U. and NATO for emergency assistance, requesting blankets, first aid kits, water trucks and food for the victims of the hurricane.

Oval Office Sharks: The Iraq War, Democrats, Racism, Hurricanes, etc. [Alittihad, U.A.E.]

This is the same America that claims the moral high-ground because it sees itself as the harbinger of human rights and equality. But within its soft underbelly lurks the wanton racism that the world witnessed through its awful treatment of the poor, black Americans that constitute the vast majority of the hurricane’s victims.

Forget about America fighting two wars on opposite sides of the globe simultaneously, or its grandiose desire to reshape the Middle East. America’s inability to cope with a man-made disaster at home and its commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan have exposed the lie of American exceptionalism and its strategic vulnerability to the entire world.

The crisis presented the Bush Administration with a quandary over how best to maintain enough troops to oversee the political process in Iraq and Afghanistan while managing the much-needed redeployment of troops and military assets to Louisiana, Mississippi and neighboring states. This is America’s tipping point, and the way that President Bush deals with the balance between U.S. obligations at home and overseas, especially in the Muslim world, will determine the fate of his presidency and America’s position in the world.

It is difficult to see how President Bush could ignore the destruction from Katrina. Initial estimates suggest that some 10,000 people have lost their lives and more than 500,000 have been displaced. The United States will have to spend billions of dollars to bring some degree of normalcy to their lives. The paltry sum of $10.5 billion offered so far will have to rise significantly if Bush is serious about accomplishing this task.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve in St. James, LA.

The effect on the American economy looks to be equally disastrous. [The creditworthiness agency] Standard and Poor’s estimates that damage from Hurricane Katrina could climb as high as $50 billion, taking into account the damage to infrastructure such as roads and bridges. The Port of New Orleans is one of the region’s busiest ports and a major oil distribution gateway. The port handles 20 percent of U.S. exports and will be out of action for several weeks. Katrina has also shut down 92 percent of Gulf oil production and 83 percent of Gulf natural gas production, according to U.S. government data. The Gulf region accounts for about 25 percent of total U.S. oil production. Bush's decision to release 30 million barrels of crude oil from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the pledge of 60 million barrels of petroleum from the International Energy Agency has done little to dampen the price of crude oil on the international market. Furthermore, these measures have had a negligible effect on the price of gasoline at the pump, which has jumped to over $3 per gallon.

To finance the recovery effort, the U.S. government will have to borrow more from international creditors. This will not only add to the burgeoning trade deficit, which stood at $650 billion in 2004, but also renders the U.S. dollar vulnerable to a huge sell off. The implications could be more catastrophic than the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Notwithstanding these difficulties, Bush also has to contend with the mounting criticism at home. There are questions about the slow response of the federal government, about FEMA’s lack of preparedness and the neglect of Afro-Americans. There are more questions about the lack of funds for strengthening the levees, the shortage of National Guard troops and the deployment of military personnel and assets in Iraq. These issues threaten to become the bane of Bush’s presidency.

21st Century Gasboy [Almostaqbal, U.A.E.]

The situation in Iraq and Afghanistan is unlikely to help President Bush and his corporate supporters. After having spent $500 billion, America is nowhere nearer to controlling the oil wells of Iraq or the Caspian Sea region. Nor has America made any substantial headway in crafting political solution for Iraq or Afghanistan.

The ferocity of the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan is not only out of control but threatens to derail upcoming elections in both countries. Initially, America was hoping to boost its presence during Iraq’s October referendum with an extra 20,000 troops, but because of Katrina, the Pentagon has revised the figure down to 2,000.

It would be extremely dangerous for America to redeploy its troops and military assets to deal with the aftermath of Katrina at this juncture. To do so would have profound implications for America’s standing in the region and beyond. What’s more, a substantial withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan would encourage other centers of power to fill the void.

A retreat from Afghanistan would spur Russia and China to assert themselves in Central Asia. Suddenly, Securing the energy reserves around the Caspian Sea and excising U.S. influence from Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Baltics will seem more plausible to Russian and Chinese policy makers. China might even become emboldened enough to take back Taiwan.

A withdrawal from Iraq may well encourage the E.U. and Russia to finish America’s project of reshaping the Middle East and controlling the region’s vast oil and gas supplies. But perhaps the biggest danger to U.S. hegemony comes from the emergence of the Caliphate, which would spell the end of Western or Eastern domination of Muslim lands.

In the coming days, America’s friends and foes will be watching for this tipping point, and the outcome is no longer in Bush’s hands. The American public and the Muslim Ummah [community] are the stakeholders now, and they will decide America’s fate.