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The Frontier Post, Pakistan

Obama Knows: Spark for Nuclear Arms Race isn't Iran, but Israel


"Unless the Jewish state renounces and dismantles its weapons program, there will be an impulse for a host of Arab states to branch out into weapons programs. That is - unless wayward nuclear Israeli is removed from the arena. But in an election year, it would be suicidal for Obama to say anything along these lines. Which is why the immediate future is worrisome for the region and beyond. Unquestionably."




March 4, 2012


Pakistan - The Frontier Post - Home Page (English)

President Obama at AIPAC: Was his staunchly pro-Israel speech just for the sake of election year politics?


WHITE HOUSE VIDEO: President Obama Speaks at America-Israel Public Affairs Committee, Mar. 4, 00:32:59WindowsVideo

President Barack Obama says he is not bluffing on Iran. And surely he would not be. No American president is ever found bluffing when it comes to a nation cast unilaterally by Washington as the enemy, or which its blue-eyed boy Israel declares its foe. The Americans despise it; Israelis loath it. And if Obama is dithering, it isn't because he is bluffing, but because he fears that an attack on Iranian nuclear installations would leave fallout that could prove quite costly to his reelection bid in November.


And his calculations may not be wide of the mark. Iran is certainly no match for the formidable military prowess of the United States. But desperate Iranian retaliatory action may be more than an irritant. With fairly advanced missile technology, Iran could hurt American strategic interests in the region with telling impact. And by mining and blockading the Strait of Hormuz, it could disrupt one-fifth of world's oil supplies, potentially leading to a global energy crisis. Furthermore, an attack on predominantly Shiite Iran could trigger rabidly hostile sectarian sentiments from the Shiite fraternity across the region, culminating in unpredictable consequences for Arab monarchies sitting firmly in the American tent and equally sharing its antipathy against the Islamic Republic.


The fallout will without doubt be huge and multifaceted, and difficult to contain or subdue. This is too much of a risk when it is such a wide open whether an attack on Iran's nuclear installations will be effective. They are not only widely dispersed, but some are dug deep into mountain rock. Obama is clearly hesitant to take the risk and is banking that the bit of sanctions will bring the Iranian people to force their government and powerful clerics to bow, if they donít force a popular revolt and regime-change. But his hope is fraught with doubt, since Iranís nuclear pursuit commands widespread support across its political spectrum. In all likelihood, an attack on Iran would more effectively unite its polity and result in boiling public hostility toward America.


Yet with the hawks itching to go in for this mad adventurism, if Iranian installations are attacked by Israel, Obama may find himself in a spot. Although the Obama Administration is counseling restraint as are saner elements in the Jewish state, the war cries are gathering momentum and are becoming louder by the day. If such foolish adventurism does come about, a wider conflagration will certainly break out, and in the U.S. election year, Obama will find it hard to stand aside. As much too politically and financially appease powerful domestic Jewish lobbies and their strong Christian evangelical cohorts, in order to neutralize his Republican opponents, he will have to get involved. Then, far from bluffing, he will be participating in a war with unforeseen but certainly disastrous consequences.



Obama may have been able to save himself this likely outcome if he had stood his ground and maintained the harder line he held after assuming office. Unlike his predecessors, he began with a discourse about better Western relations with the Muslim fraternity. He spoke an idiom that exposed the Jewish state, not as a paragon of virtue and piety, but as an aggressive and expansionist state. But then his political compulsions crowded in, turning him into a loyal supporter of the Jewish state and backer of its policies in the region.††



So it comes as no surprise that Obama also seems to regard Iran as a potential catalyst for nuclear proliferation. Obama says that for a number of nations, an Iranian bomb would only be intolerable by acquiring one for themselves. This is an atrocious fallacy for Obama to indulge in. Any objective observer need take only a moment to see that it is Israelís nuclear program that is the atomic red rag for the region. Not only does the Jewish state have a long-running nuclear weapons program, but experts say it already possesses over 100 bombs. And apart from its aggressive policies, it still occupies huge swaths of Arab territory, and in defiance of dozens of U.N. resolutions to vacate them.




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Unless the Jewish state renounces and dismantles its weapons program and vacates occupied Arab lands, there will be an impulse for nuclear pursuits. And it isn't Saddamís Iraq or Bashar al-Assadís Syria which has attempted nuclear acquisition. There are a host of Arab states working on nuclear programs of sorts, although for now - only for peaceful purposes. One can't say when or if one or a few of these states will branch out. That is - unless wayward nuclear Israeli is removed from the arena. But in an election year, it would be suicidal for Obama to say anything along these lines. Which is why the immediate future is worrisome for the region and beyond. Unquestionably.




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[Posted by WORLDMEETS.US March. 6, 7:19am]


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