The West
Ignores Yemen at its Peril (Sueddeutsche Zeitung, Germany)
"A storm
is brewing in Yemen. Shiite militias, Sunni tribes, al-Qaeda, Iran and Saudi
Arabia are all in the mix in the Middle East's poorest country. … The
geopolitically- and religiously-charged nature of this local conflict only
makes finding a solution more complicated. … As the recent attack on Charlie Hébdo
made clear, the West should not ignore this seemingly distant crisis."
The palace has fallen. Shiite fighters of the Houthi militia have occupied the Presidential Palace in Sanaa. This is the final symbolic act of a creeping coup in
Yemen. It all started in September when 30,000 people advanced from their
ancestral lands in the north and overran the capital.
As of Tuesday (Jan. 22), no minister from the cabinet of President
Abed Rabbo Mansur Hadi will
be permitted to sign a decree without a Houthi
representative given his blessing. And even if then, as Hadi's
chief of staff attempted to do with the draft for a new constitution, the
militia responded with kidnappings, grenades and threats. The internationally-recognized
central government is in-effect no longer able to act. [Hadi resigned yesterday, Jan. 24. Videos in right column.]
The government is
powerless against the jihadists
Because of the Shiite advance and the passivity of Hadi, the Sunni tribes in the south felt compelled to take defending
themselves into their own hands. Not every battle between the Sunnis and Houthis
take place with the participation of al-Qaeda fighters, but often enough the [Sunni]
tribes grant the extremists free reign in their territory.
The government, in turn, is powerless against the jihadists,
and in addition, the military's loyalty is fragmented and former President Ali Abdullah Saleh (video above) still pulls the strings behind the scenes. The drone
attacks by the Americans on the cadres of al-Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula have not been able to weaken the terrorist group. On
the contrary, they have likely strengthened its hand.
Iran, Saudi Arabia,
and al-Qaeda – many add to the misery
Although what is brewing in Yemen is a storm, there's still
a chance it will die down again. In the worst-case scenario, the country will
break in two – north and south. The south would likely become a haven for Sunni
jihadists; the north a reincarnation of the Shiite Zaydi
Imamate that dominated the north for a thousand years before the revolution in
1961. In the south, some hope that the Gulf States led by Saudi Arabia will
support secession. Meanwhile, the north would find a willing supporter and
protecting power in Iran.
The Gulf States already see the Houthi
militia as an Iranian fifth
column, financed, armed and controlled from Tehran. There is no reliable
evidence of this, but often perceptions matter more than policy. It's clear
that there are close ties between the Houthi leadership
and Tehran and also to the Shiite militia Hezbullah – another close Iranian
ally. The rise of the Houthis has less to do with greater zeal on the part of
the Iranians as it does with a retreat by Saudi Arabia. When the Muslim
Brotherhood fell out of favor, the Saudis shifted away from supporting certain
Sunni-Islamist parties and families. So they lost influence and they no longer
have partners in Yemen. Furthermore, their politics have been poorly
coordinated.
The West must rely on
U.N. intervention
Furthermore, the Houthis' populist demands have succeeded in
gaining support beyond their own base. The geopolitically- and religiously-charged
nature of this local conflict only makes finding a solution more complicated. If
the Saudis turn off the cash flow to Yemen because they don't want it to end up
with the Houthis, the poorest country in the Arab world will be on the verge of
collapse. Even now many people there suffer hunger.
There is virtually nothing the West can do but rely on United
Nations mediation. Grants linked to clearly-defined progress in the
implementation of the plan agreed upon in September for a political transition are
worth considering by the U.S. and the E.U. As the recent attack on Charlie Hébdo
made clear, the West should not ignore this seemingly distant crisis.
