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Opera Mundi, Brazil

Can America Secure a North Korean Nuclear 'Reversal'?

"If North Korea allows IAEA inspectors to verify the suspension of its nuclear enrichment plant, it would be possible to learn more about the current stage of its program. Remember that only one group of foreigners has ever seen the inside of the installation, and then only briefly. It is interesting to note that the North Koreans know that an inspection will reveal more about their capabilities. Why are they taking this step? It’s hard to say."

By Leonam dos Santos Guimarães*

Translated By Brandi Miller

March 6, 2012

Brazil - Opera Mundi - Original Article (Portuguese)

The recent agreement signed between the United States and North Korea is an important step for three reasons. First of all, because it buys time. Another nuclear test followed by news that North Korea is able to miniaturize missile warheads would only make a bad situation worse. The agreement pushed this further into the distance, contingent upon progress being made in renewed talks.

Secondly, in addition to halting activities at its uranium enrichment plant, if North Korea allows IAEA inspectors to verify the suspension of operation, it would be possible to learn more about the current stage of its nuclear program. Remember that only one group of invited foreigners has ever seen the inside of the installation, and then only briefly. It is interesting to note that the North Koreans know that a future inspection will reveal more information about their capabilities. Why are they taking this step? It’s hard to say.

Finally, this arrangement can help build a foundation for further progress toward stopping, and then eventually, reversing, the DPRK’s nuclear effort. Many specialists speak of “denuclearization,” not understanding that this process cannot emerge overnight, particularly with a program that is almost five decades old. Note that North Korea is not Libya: its eventual “denuclearization” will first require a “freeze” to then a “reversal,” which will take time.

A series of potential problems appear on horizon after unilateral statements from both countries. Food distribution will not be a problem, since most of the details have now been resolved. The implementation of the moratorium, however, appears fraught with difficulty, as it requires North Korea and the IAEA to work jointly on safeguard measures, particularly at the nuclear plant in Yongbyon. There is a history of bad relations between the two, although the few times that North Korea has agreed to work with the agency, it clearly did so because it was in their interest, as it seems to be this time.  

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The unilateral declaration of North Korea makes it clear that “priority will be given to a discussion of issues related to the lifting of sanctions and providing nuclear power plants.” Pyongyang insists that this must happen for it to give up its uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons programs. That is problematic, as there is no country interested in providing nuclear plants to North Korea. But China may be an exception, provided that the West pays the bill.

One might ask why this agreement has just been reached. That's a good question. None of the experts thought anything would happen in 2012, since it's an election year in the U.S. and one would have suspected little interest in Pyongyang for reaching new deals. This agreement was a great surprise to many. It is hard to say what's happening, except the U.S. seems to have finally understood that its policy of “strategic patience” - trying to convince Pyongyang to change its bad behavior by means of pressure and isolation - has failed. Pressure and isolation are good, but without extending the hand of diplomacy, they lead to a deadlock. The resemblance to the case of Iran is no coincidence.

SEE ALSO ON THIS:
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Rodong Sinmun, North Korea: Imperialist Sanctions 'Should Be Smashed'
Moskovskiye Novosti, Russia: 'Russia's Place in a Changing World,' By Vladimir Putin

Rodong Sinmun, North Korea: 'U.S. Warmongers' Foolish to Hope to Change North

Jong-A Ilbo, S. Korea: Why the Kim Jong-un Regime is 'Doomed'

Jong-A Ilbo, S. Korea: U.S.,China Must Resist Urge to Meddle after Kim's Death

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Germany: Secret of America's Counterfeit 'Supernotes'

Korean Central, North Korea: The U.S. 'Should Be Cursed' By All Koreans

Korean Central, North Korea: 'Japanese Militarists' Prepare for Reinvasion of Korea

On why North Korea made this move, some might say that this agreement proves that U.S. “strategic patience” has worked, and that Pyongyang is “giving in.” More attentive analysts, however, believe that this may reflect a desire on the part of North Korea to escape the “Chinese bear hug” in the context of a relationship that is much stronger today than it was in the past.

Others see this as a tactical step, taken because North Korea wants to maintain a calm external environment during the first year of a leadership transition. Still others believe that the North agreed to a moratorium because it really isn't ready to carry out further nuclear or missile tests and needs more time to work on its enrichment program at Yongbyon. All of these explanations are possible.

*Leonam dos Santos Guimarães holds a doctorate in naval and nuclear engineering, is an assistant to the chairman of Eletrobrás Eletronuclear and is a member of the IAEA’s Permanent Advisory Group.