Why Syria is Lebanon All Over Again (Ma'ariv, Israel)
“This is the Lebanonization of Syria: secret arms shipments, mass murders
and a host of interests that dart back and forth between combatants engaged
in ethnic cleansing. … Washington has yet to begin formally supplying offensive
weapons to the rebels, but it is on its way, and the implications are clear:
the war in Syria could not only become one of sectarian bloodshed, but one
between the proxy-powers themselves.”
The Assad family has always believed that Lebanon is a province
of Syria separated by a colonial plot. Hafez al-Assad passed
away over a decade ago, but his great vision is coming true in a horrible way:
Lebanon has not become Syria; Syria is becoming Lebanon.
Not the Lebanon of our times, of course, in which a quiet
tension endures among the various ethnic communities, but the Lebanon of the
70s and the 80s, of civil war, which was essentially a tribal and religious
war. This is the Lebanonization of Syria: secret arms
shipments, mass murders and a host of interests that dart back and forth between
combatants engaged in ethnic cleansing.
Syria, the focus of regional stability since the 1960s, has
become a bloody swamp. Modern Syrian history has just been rewritten, and the current
trauma will be considered the darkest chapter since the Republic was
established [1956].
The U.N.’s formal declaration that a civil war exists in the
country is of little meaning on its own. International law doesn’t treat countries
in the midst of such a war differently; and at any rate, the Damascus regime has
the upper hand and will be held responsible for everything that occurs in the
country.
But the collapse of the Syrian state and the definition of
the war as civil will further strengthen those calling for action under Chapter
VII of the U.N. Charter, and who mean to “restore peace and security” to the
region.
Assad Family has Become Burden to Putin
Support for the regime is mainly ideological. Politically,
Russia and China continue to block and real action. The realists claim they want
to prevent Syria from becoming another sphere of American influence. The cynics
would add: the Russians and the Chinese don’t want Syria to fall into the jaws
of democracy - into the claws of open and free elections.
There is something to that, but Russia’s interest is nothing
inspiring: Putin feels no personal obligation to the Assad family, and in some
ways it has become a burden to him. But he would like to preserve the regime’s hold
on power - those that promise him that Damascus will always be receptive to
significant Russian influence. Putin continues to see the world through the
grim spectacles of the USSR’s collapse: the Syrian revolution could become a
strategic loss.
Yesterday night made clear the extent to which the Syrian
war is a proxy one. For the first time, the United States accused Moscow of
providing offensive weapons to the Assad regime. Hillary Clinton warned against
the transfer of assault helicopters to Syria – in fact, Hillary was trying to
publicly expose Putin’s bluff. Putin and his regime rolled their eyes and
simultaneously signed new arms deals with Damascus.
Posted
by Worldmeets.US
Washington has yet to begin formally supplying offensive weapons
to the rebels, but it is on its way, and the developing implications are clear:
the war in Syria could not only become one of sectarian bloodshed, but one
between the proxy-powers themselves.
In a sense, we are already there. Large amounts of chemical
and biological weapons with great killing potential, Syria’s regional
significance - these will require international leadership that is willing and able
to make quick decisions. At the moment, neither is at hand.
*NadavEyal
is the foreign news editor of Channel 10
