The End of American Empire? Get Serious! (Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland)
"The facts are quite different - even if China will
probably eventually overtake America, for now its GDP is half that of the United
States. ... Ukraine isn't an American ally, has little impact on the global economy,
and has no natural resources. Why should U.S. troops die for Ukraine? ... Only
a few years ago, Americans almost spent more on arms than the rest of the world
combined. ... Five-year bonds are now sold at negative interest - meaning that,
considering inflation, investors can expect a small loss in five years, but
they're buying anyway."
Events
in Ukraine, in particular the ease with which the Russians have occupied Crimea and with
the whole world watching split the Ukrainian state, are grist for the
mill for the many prophets preaching the decline of America's power.
Indeed,
it doesn't look good. Let's take, for instance, last Saturday, when President
Obama hosted Chancellor Merkel in Washington. It would seem their joint press
conference would have been the best possible moment to show Putin some
determination and give him a bit of a fright. However, to the contrary, nothing of the kind happened. Only a rather
murky announcement of ill-defined sanctions was offered which sounded anything
but convincing.
Moreover,
the Ukrainian crisis is just one of many signs. America didn't win the wars in
Iraq and Afghanistan, it is drowning in debt, still hasn't shaken off the
consequences of the financial crisis, and its political system is increasingly
inefficient - see last year's shameful performance by Congress, which failed to
pass a budget on time and ran out of funds for current government expenditures.
In
America, inequality has grown so dramatically that, as French economist Thomas Picketty claims in his renowned Capital
in the 21st Century, being born into a rich or poor family largely determines
a person's lifetime social position. American democracy and free market are
being corrupted and transformed into a quasi-feudal system.
Perhaps
most telling is that even Americans themselves are doubting America.
In
a recent Reuters poll, the question "Which
country today is the greatest economic power in the world?," only 31
percent of Americans responded "the USA." Fifty two percent said it was China!
The
facts, however, are quite different - even if China will probably eventually overtake
America, for now its GDP is half that of the United States. Yet for three
years, as the polls attest, more than half of Americans believe they
have already been dethroned. The reasons one can guess: the crisis, the deluge
of "Made in China" products, over a trillion dollars borrowed from
the Chinese, etc.
Naturally
enough, the American right points to another cause: America's current weakness,
or at least the perception of it, is due to the fact that the current president
is overly cautious, conciliatory and indecisive. Some Republican commentators
have recently settled into a bizarre fascination with contrasting Obama to the "ruthless
and decisive" bare-chested, horse-riding, Bengal tiger-shooting Vladimir
Putin. A wimp who spends his spare time playing golf or relaxing on a Hawaiian
beach is for Putin not a equal partner.
Such
comparisons are quite idiotic. Obama openly admits he doesn't intend to defend the
borders of Ukraine from Russia, not because he is "weak," but because
he is guided by his understanding of American interests. From his
perspective, Ukraine has no special importance (strictly speaking, not until it
became a victim of Russian aggression). It isn't an American ally, has little
impact on the global economy, and has no natural resources. Why should U.S.
troops die for Ukraine?
The
fact that America doesn't want to use force doesn't mean that it has none to use.
On the contrary, its military domination is now greater than ever. Only a few
years ago, Americans almost spent more on arms than the rest of the world
combined. Right now they are spending somewhat less, but still five times as
much as China, who is next on the list, and eight times as much as the third
country, Russia.
Someone
might maliciously ask: if they are so powerful, how to explain their defeat in Iraq
and Afghanistan? Indeed, the U.S. failed to prevail in those conflict, but then,
over the course of history, the weaker has often prevailed over the stronger. These
have most often been cases in which the weaker was much more motivated. For the
Iraqi insurgents and Afghan Taliban, the conflict with the United States had an
existential character, so they staked everything they had on the fight. For
America, these were just two overseas wars.
Posted By
Worldmeets.US
And
what about the economy? It's true that the world is becoming multi-polar. Not
only China, but India, Brazil and other countries are growing. But for now, the
center of gravity remains in America, which isn't doing too badly, thank you.
Unemployment is below 7 percent - every country in Europe would love such
problems! Public debt is over $17 trillion and growing, but American Treasury Bonds
are on fire. Five-year bonds are now sold at negative interest - meaning that,
considering inflation, investors can expect a small loss in five years, but
they're buying anyway. If people want to pay America to borrow their money,
only a lunatic would refuse ...
Generally
speaking, reports of America's demise appear a bit premature.
