An
Egypt soldier stands by as voters go to the polls: While the Muslim
Brotherhood
appears to have won the most seats in the first round of
parliamentary
voting, the world stood by with bated breath wondering
what
will become of democracy in Egypt if Islamists end up in charge.
Les Dernières
Nouvelles d'Alsace, France
Americans Must Hold Tongues Until After the Egyptian Polls
"At
a minimum, the U.S. will precondition its aid to Egypt on the emergence of a
peaceful democracy. But such pressure will only be effective after the polls: If it was known that the White
House were directly influencing Egyptian domestic affairs, it would be a boon to
the Islamists, who are always quick to wave the national torch and jeer friends of Israel."
While Egyptians went to the polls peacefully and in large numbers, the first free election in decades may dissapoint the West, particularly the United States.
Egypt
frightens itself - and us. The army is playing a troubling game. We don’t know if
it's overwhelmed by the disorder, or if it's fostering it to add weight to the
blackmail that was once Mubarak's: it is either me - or chaos.
If the
army has been able to maintain its prerogatives (political as well as
financial, as in Algeria), it's because it cannot even imagine the United
States cutting off its $1.3 billion annual subsidy - in return for which it is
the guarantor of a form of regional balance based on respect for the peace
agreement with Israel.
That
peace will persist even when the Muslim Brotherhood controls Parliament is the
other gamble - not least in an electoral cycle that in principal must lead to a
presidential election before summer. These elections will be decisive not only
for Egyptians, not only for the conversion of Arabs to democracy, but also for not
rekindling an Egyptian-Israeli firestorm that will have horrific
consequences.
At
a minimum, the United States will precondition its aid to Egypt on the emergence
of a peaceful democracy. But such pressure will only be effective after the polls:
as has been said during the election campaign, if it was known that the White
House is directly influencing Egyptian domestic affairs, it would be a boon to
the Islamists, who are always quick to wave the national torch and jeer friends
of Israel.
Once
the Islamists are elected however, everything will be out in the open. Either
the Islamists will pledge realism and make a pact with the army to maintain American
subsidies, in which case there will be a difficult policy bifurcation but a
diplomatic status quo; or they will play with fire by betting on an
anti-Israeli coalition, with the idea of reshuffling the cards in the name of the
ancient pan-Arab dream [of Arab unification], that chimera which, from Nasser
to Qaddafi, has repeatedly failed to emerge.
As
long as the Islamists maintain uncertainty, democracy will wait and peace will
be at a standstill. But for now, it is they who hold the cards.
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